15/09/09
Many suggest that 2009 will be the year of the West Balkans, but is this really true?
If we make a quick analysis of what’s happening in Europe we will notice that there are three main problems which stand before the West Balkans and their chance of joining the EU. None of these problems can be measured on the same scale however all of them need to be solved. Those problems are the Global Financial Crisis, the two way dispute between countries members of the EU and the countries who want membership from the West Balkans and the possibility for the denial of the Lisbon Treaty.
In order to paint the whole picture we need to view how these factors look through the eyes of the European Institutions.
Concerning the World Financial Crisis the European Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn comments: “We must not turn the enlargement of the EU into a victim of the World Financial Crisis, because it does not deserve this and isn’t guilty for our social problems”.
The commission on Foreign Policy is working on a resolution concerning the second problem - the blocking of three Balkan countries – Croatia, The Republic of Macedonia and Serbia by respectively Slovenia, Greece and The Netherlands. The resolution will state that, “countries who are Members of the European Union do not have the right to block countries who want to join on a basis of a two way conflict”.
Concerning the third problem, Olli Rehn says that after the Irish “No” to the Lisbon Treaty the enlargement of the EU is not the biggest issue at the moment. But countries such as Croatia or Serbia shouldn’t be the casualties as a result from this. “My motto states, it is better to export stability rather then import instability”.
If we base our statement on what’s said above we can say that the problems are easily solved, but is this true?
If we start from the saying that states “Strong Balkans, strong Europe” and we view the perspective for membership of the countries from the West Balkans we can state that membership in the EU will help stabilize the West Balkan region, will help ensure liberal democracy and will spread European values. The enlargement of the EU is very important process and as much as a positive answer is wanted it can not be given at the moment.
The Financial Crisis is raising many questions before the future perspective of the West Balkans concerning the economic situation in Eastern Europe. The collapse of money value, the deficit on current accounts, loans in foreign currency and the heavy recession will lead to a crisis with the Euro if there is a collapse in the Eastern Europe Economy.
The foggy position of the public is also a factor which adds to the insecurity. At the current moment no one knows how the integration of Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Albania continue. The fogginess also reacts on the potential members. It takes effect on the chance for compromises to be made and the urge to actually join the EU. The problem can clearly be seen before Presidential Elections or elections for National Parliament where political parties can win or lose the support of voting citizens. A clear perspective for membership needs to be delivered to the countries from the West Balkans.
Concerning the two way conflicts, despite the efforts put forth on a national level the international conflicts still keep growing.
The urgency for improving the fight against organized crime and taking anti-corruption actions still figures in all European reports concerning the waiting members and the potential members from the West Balkans.
The denial of the Lisbon Treaty makes it institutionally impossible for more countries to join the EU, because of the Treaty signed in Nice early in the XX centaury.
This leads to the next important question that the future acceptance of new countries will lead to a change in the integration model. The current model of the EU – Sovereign Countries gradually starts to shift and becomes more and more like EU – Federation. Many political science experts are putting there thoughts on this question.
In the context of the West Balkans the arrow clearly points away from the Treaty signed in Nice to the Lisbon Treaty. The structure of the whole integration process goes towards a Federation, which leads to tighter integration.
This can especially be said for the countries from the West Balkans who have been part of a Federation – Yugoslavia. This will be a new historical chance for identification in a bigger society. The mistakes of the past must not be repeated. European Identity needs to be universal, unreligious and there must be political identity. The European politic must not be ethicized. The civil rights for joining the Union need must be the most important. This is the only way the model of a Federation can turn out successive and universal.
All in all as a conclusion we can say that the acceptance of the West Balkans in the Union is not possible before the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. But if it is accepted we can say that 2009 is the Year of the Balkans and of the whole European Union. The enlargement exports stability and will lead to changes in the Union and the whole integration model, which will lead towards a Federation with the necessity of a clear European Identification.
Monika Panayotova
Member of Parliament in the 41st National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria
Director of “International Projects and relations with Society” (2007-2008)
Economic Policy Institute
If we make a quick analysis of what’s happening in Europe we will notice that there are three main problems which stand before the West Balkans and their chance of joining the EU. None of these problems can be measured on the same scale however all of them need to be solved. Those problems are the Global Financial Crisis, the two way dispute between countries members of the EU and the countries who want membership from the West Balkans and the possibility for the denial of the Lisbon Treaty.
In order to paint the whole picture we need to view how these factors look through the eyes of the European Institutions.
Concerning the World Financial Crisis the European Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn comments: “We must not turn the enlargement of the EU into a victim of the World Financial Crisis, because it does not deserve this and isn’t guilty for our social problems”.
The commission on Foreign Policy is working on a resolution concerning the second problem - the blocking of three Balkan countries – Croatia, The Republic of Macedonia and Serbia by respectively Slovenia, Greece and The Netherlands. The resolution will state that, “countries who are Members of the European Union do not have the right to block countries who want to join on a basis of a two way conflict”.
Concerning the third problem, Olli Rehn says that after the Irish “No” to the Lisbon Treaty the enlargement of the EU is not the biggest issue at the moment. But countries such as Croatia or Serbia shouldn’t be the casualties as a result from this. “My motto states, it is better to export stability rather then import instability”.
If we base our statement on what’s said above we can say that the problems are easily solved, but is this true?
If we start from the saying that states “Strong Balkans, strong Europe” and we view the perspective for membership of the countries from the West Balkans we can state that membership in the EU will help stabilize the West Balkan region, will help ensure liberal democracy and will spread European values. The enlargement of the EU is very important process and as much as a positive answer is wanted it can not be given at the moment.
The Financial Crisis is raising many questions before the future perspective of the West Balkans concerning the economic situation in Eastern Europe. The collapse of money value, the deficit on current accounts, loans in foreign currency and the heavy recession will lead to a crisis with the Euro if there is a collapse in the Eastern Europe Economy.
The foggy position of the public is also a factor which adds to the insecurity. At the current moment no one knows how the integration of Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Albania continue. The fogginess also reacts on the potential members. It takes effect on the chance for compromises to be made and the urge to actually join the EU. The problem can clearly be seen before Presidential Elections or elections for National Parliament where political parties can win or lose the support of voting citizens. A clear perspective for membership needs to be delivered to the countries from the West Balkans.
Concerning the two way conflicts, despite the efforts put forth on a national level the international conflicts still keep growing.
The urgency for improving the fight against organized crime and taking anti-corruption actions still figures in all European reports concerning the waiting members and the potential members from the West Balkans.
The denial of the Lisbon Treaty makes it institutionally impossible for more countries to join the EU, because of the Treaty signed in Nice early in the XX centaury.
This leads to the next important question that the future acceptance of new countries will lead to a change in the integration model. The current model of the EU – Sovereign Countries gradually starts to shift and becomes more and more like EU – Federation. Many political science experts are putting there thoughts on this question.
In the context of the West Balkans the arrow clearly points away from the Treaty signed in Nice to the Lisbon Treaty. The structure of the whole integration process goes towards a Federation, which leads to tighter integration.
This can especially be said for the countries from the West Balkans who have been part of a Federation – Yugoslavia. This will be a new historical chance for identification in a bigger society. The mistakes of the past must not be repeated. European Identity needs to be universal, unreligious and there must be political identity. The European politic must not be ethicized. The civil rights for joining the Union need must be the most important. This is the only way the model of a Federation can turn out successive and universal.
All in all as a conclusion we can say that the acceptance of the West Balkans in the Union is not possible before the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. But if it is accepted we can say that 2009 is the Year of the Balkans and of the whole European Union. The enlargement exports stability and will lead to changes in the Union and the whole integration model, which will lead towards a Federation with the necessity of a clear European Identification.
Monika Panayotova
Member of Parliament in the 41st National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria
Director of “International Projects and relations with Society” (2007-2008)
Economic Policy Institute
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